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Task 2 (Open)

How the field flew this task, and which behaviours separated it.

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ELLIOTELLIOTHALFWYTOOMACUDGELLIOTCORRYCORRY
The optimised route. Pilots fly it in the direction of the arrows. The radii, the leg distances and the start times are on the task page.

Analysis computed

Pilots
46
Airtime
103h (12:50–18:14 AEDT)
Thermals
28772 shared by 2+ pilots
Working band
845–2040 m
Airtime split
  • 37%climbing
  • 25%gliding
  • 38%searching

3 pilots are in the standings but not in this analysis. Which, and why

What the weather did

From the weather model

Independent of the tracklogs: modelled conditions for the task area.

Fetching the day’s weather — it will appear here in a moment.

From the pilots' tracks

What the field actually flew — wind, climb strength and leg timing measured from every pilot's tracklog.

The day’s wind, hour by hour and leg by leg. What the air did, read from the field itself. We estimate the wind from the circling of every pilot. The first method is the drift of the circle centre, and the second method, used when the first is not available, is the modulation of the ground speed. We then average the vectors two ways. The table by hour of day shows how the wind increased and changed direction through the day. The table by speed-section leg shows the wind on each part of the course. This metric describes the day, so it has no value for each pilot.

How strong the day’s climbs were, hour by hour. When the day started, reached its peak, and ended. We group the thermal climbs of all pilots by the hour in which each climb started, labelled in the time zone of the competition. The median and the 90th-percentile average climb rate for each hour show how the lift developed. This metric describes the day, so it has no value for each pilot.

Share of the flight spent in air that wasn’t sinking. How much of the flight was in air worth being in. The value is the share of the airborne time of a pilot, on the shared grid, with a 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. The time they flew, the line they steered and the way the flight ended all feed this value. It is therefore a reading of the day as much as of the pilot. There is no expected direction, and the sign of the correlation is the finding. The timing table compares the window of the day’s best climbs against the time when the field launched.

All charts — measured and modelled alike — share one time axis (AEDT), so a vertical scan compares the two at the same moment. Arrows fly WITH the wind — direction figures are degrees the wind blows from; arrow length and opacity track speed and sample count. On the per-leg chart the pale bar is when the field flew that leg and the solid band inside it is the circling its wind was measured from — a leg the field glided is measured in a sliver of the time it was flown. Exact numbers are in the day family’s tables under “The metrics in detail”.

Which behaviours went with better results

Every row is one behaviour, measured for each pilot and then compared against the published placings (Spearman's rank correlation, ρ). Rank 1 is best, so a behaviour where more is better shows a negative ρ. A bigger bar means the behaviour tracked the placings more closely on this task, and pilots measured is how much of the analysed field the behaviour applied to — a reading drawn from half the field is thinner than one drawn from all of it. Select a row to see that behaviour plotted against rank — the chart stays in view while you work down the table.

Share of race time spent hunting for the next climb

Each dot is a pilot: across is what was measured, up is a better rank. ρ = 0.79 (clear pattern, n = 46). Less is expected to be better here, and it was: top ranks gather to the left. The curve is a trend fitted through the dots: left to right it runs from about rank 8 to about rank 43.
  • Speed-section phase shares, field p25/median/p75: climb 19/32/39% · glide 24/30/34% · search 27/37/52%
BehaviourStrengthWhat it meansPilots measured
Share of race time spent hunting for the next climb
clear pattern
Glide speed between climbs
clear pattern
Share of lift turned in that was kept as a climb
clear pattern
Gliding wide of the optimal course line
clear pattern
How much of the thermal the pilot climbed before leaving it
clear pattern
How long after the gate opened the pilot started
clear pattern
Distance covered between climbs
some pattern
Climbing faster than the pilots sharing the thermal
some pattern
How low the pilot gets between climbs
some pattern
Time to core thermals
some pattern
Arriving at ESS with height to spare
could be chance
Glide L/D against the field median
some pattern
Low saves dug out from the bottom of the band
some pattern
Share of the height gain made outside thermals
some pattern
Time spent flying with a gaggle
some pattern
How often leaving the gaggle paid off
could be chance
Climb rate at thermal exit
could be chance
Climbs joined on another pilot's marker
could be chance
Share of the flight spent in air that wasn’t sinking
could be chance
Gliding faster when the next climb is stronger
could be chance
How round and consistent the circles were
could be chance

clear pattern is |ρ| ≥ 0.5, some pattern ≥ 0.3 and faint pattern below — each only once the coefficient is bigger than chance alone produces at that many pilots (its noise floor). could be chance (in the statistics: within noise) means shuffling the placings produces a coefficient that size more than 5% of the time, so it cannot be told apart from luck however big it looks. too few pilots is fewer than 8 pilots with a value — not enough to tell either way.

Rank 21 behaviours against one day's results and a few will look strong on luck alone — the ones worth believing are those that repeat across tasks in the competition-level analysis.

Outcome checks

These are not behaviours. They measure the result itself, for example the time behind the leader and the race time lost, so they always follow the places. They are here as a check on the analysis. A weak pattern in this table means that something is wrong in the numbers, and not in the flying of any pilot. Their per-pilot tables stay in the Race craft section below.

OutcomeStrengthWhat it meansPilots measured
Race time behind the leader at ESS
clear pattern
Race time lost against the fastest pilots, leg by leg
could be chance

The whole field at a glance

1. Rohan Taylor
2. Steven Crosby
3. Steve Docherty
4. Vic Hare
5. Rory Duncan
6. Jay Kubeil
7. Bruce Wynne
8. Jon Durand
9. Richard Martin
10. Dustan Hansen
11. Mitch Butler
12. Troy Horton
13. John Harriott
14. James Atkinson
15. Stuart Cathcart
16. Enda Carrigan
17. Mark Jeffree
18. Neale Halsall
19. Andrew Taylor
20. Trent Brown
21. Ward Gunn
22. Todd Wisewould
23. Olav Opsanger
24. Michael Free
25. Adrian Connor
26. Neil Hooke
27. Peter Adriaans
28. Hughbert Alexander
29. Tushar Pokle
30. Hossain Tefaili
31. Gary Herman
32. Rennick Kerr
33. Peter Garrone
34. Andrew Sutton
35. Peter Burkitt
36. Peter Tolhurst
37. Brett Davis
38. Mario Chapa
39. Andrew Berenyi
40. Randall Clotworthy
41. Damian Hamilton
42. Marty Hearne
43. Neill Hollingsworth
44. Wayne Johnston
45. Jason Lannstrom
46. James McGinty
The pilots in rank order against every behaviour. A darker cell is a better percentile in this field, and an empty cell is a behaviour that does not apply. The columns start with the behaviours whose better end went with better places, continue through the behaviours that separated nobody, and end with the behaviours that ran the other way. A field that one behaviour separated therefore shades dark in the top-left corner, and a field where each pilot won differently does not. The band above rates how much pattern each group of columns holds: a clear, some or faint pattern, noise (could be chance), or too few pilots to tell. The family sections below carry the exact values. † This behaviour has no good or bad direction. The shade is the position in the field, and not the quality.

Pilot style clusters

The groups are flying style, and not score. The spread of ranks in each group shows where that style paid and where it did not. Each group carries the name of its strongest signature. A ★ marks the pilot most typical of their group.

Group A — Bold leavers

25 pilots · ranks 1–31 · median 13 · middle half 7–22

  • High — How often leaving the gaggle paid off group median P75 in this field (100 percent)
  • Low — Share of race time spent hunting for the next climb group median P27 in this field (27 percent) · usually a strength
  • High — How much of the thermal the pilot climbed before leaving it group median P67 in this field (64 percent)
  • Low — Low saves dug out from the bottom of the band group median P33 in this field (0.0 count)
  • 1. Rohan Taylor
  • 2. Steven Crosby
  • 3. Steve Docherty (most typical of this group)
  • 4. Vic Hare
  • 5. Rory Duncan
  • 6. Jay Kubeil
  • 7. Bruce Wynne
  • 8. Jon Durand
  • 9. Richard Martin
  • 10. Dustan Hansen
  • 11. Mitch Butler
  • 12. Troy Horton
  • 13. John Harriott
  • 14. James Atkinson
  • 15. Stuart Cathcart
  • 19. Andrew Taylor
  • 20. Trent Brown
  • 21. Ward Gunn
  • 22. Todd Wisewould
  • 23. Olav Opsanger
  • 24. Michael Free
  • 28. Hughbert Alexander
  • 29. Tushar Pokle
  • 30. Hossain Tefaili
  • 31. Gary Herman

Group B — Deep diggers

13 pilots · ranks 16–38 · median 32 · middle half 25–35

  • Low — How low the pilot gets between climbs group median P15 in this field (15 percent)
  • Low — Glide L/D against the field median group median P18 in this field (0.84 ratio) · usually costly
  • High — Climbs joined on another pilot's marker group median P81 in this field (52 percent)
  • High — Gliding wide of the optimal course line group median P81 in this field (79 percent) · usually costly
  • 16. Enda Carrigan
  • 17. Mark Jeffree
  • 18. Neale Halsall
  • 25. Adrian Connor (most typical of this group)
  • 26. Neil Hooke
  • 27. Peter Adriaans
  • 32. Rennick Kerr
  • 33. Peter Garrone
  • 34. Andrew Sutton
  • 35. Peter Burkitt
  • 36. Peter Tolhurst
  • 37. Brett Davis
  • 38. Mario Chapa

Not clustered: 39. Andrew Berenyi — only 6 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 40. Randall Clotworthy — only 8 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 41. Damian Hamilton — only 9 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 42. Marty Hearne — only 12 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 43. Neill Hollingsworth — only 7 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 44. Wayne Johnston — only 9 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 45. Jason Lannstrom — only 11 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%); 46. James McGinty — only 6 of 21 metrics available (needs ≥ 60%).

GlideComp groups the pilots by flying style, and not by score. It transforms the rank of every behavioural metric to a percentile inside the field. It then compares two pilots by the mean percentile gap over the metrics that both pilots have, and never fills in a missing value. Ward-linkage agglomeration forms the groups, and the best mean silhouette selects the number of groups. Each group carries the spread of the GAP ranks of its members, which shows where a style paid and where it did not. On this task, 38 pilots on 21 behavioural metrics formed 2 groups, with k searched from 2 to 6. The mean silhouette is 0.14. A value near 0 means soft group boundaries, and a value near 1 means tight, well-separated groups.

The metrics in detail

best: could be chance (0.11)

best: clear pattern (0.62)

#PilotOut-climbCore sLeaveRateKept%TopOut%Round
1Rohan Taylor71 (46 shared climbs)34 (15 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)74 (14/19 circling bouts led to climbs)51 (mean on-course altitude 50% of band)0.18 (151 circles, 70% left)
2Steven Crosby64 (34 shared climbs)37 (20 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (18 climbs ≥ 90 s)78 (14/18 circling bouts led to climbs)75 (mean on-course altitude 64% of band)0.18 (192 circles, 52% left)
3Steve Docherty64 (22 shared climbs)37 (20 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (12 climbs ≥ 90 s)77 (17/22 circling bouts led to climbs)63 (mean on-course altitude 57% of band)0.17 (197 circles, 35% left)
4Vic Hare75 (32 shared climbs)33 (22 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (16 climbs ≥ 90 s)94 (16/17 circling bouts led to climbs)74 (mean on-course altitude 64% of band)0.20 (203 circles, 50% left)
5Rory Duncan73 (44 shared climbs)35 (20 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (11 climbs ≥ 90 s)82 (18/22 circling bouts led to climbs)55 (mean on-course altitude 63% of band)0.14 (181 circles, 10% left)
6Jay Kubeil66 (70 shared climbs)12 (17 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)82 (18/22 circling bouts led to climbs)74 (mean on-course altitude 64% of band)0.17 (154 circles, 30% left)
7Bruce Wynne63 (19 shared climbs)72 (21 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.4 (19 climbs ≥ 90 s)81 (17/21 circling bouts led to climbs)96 (mean on-course altitude 44% of band)0.14 (64 circles, 14% left)
8Jon Durand70 (38 shared climbs)38 (21 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.9 (16 climbs ≥ 90 s)90 (18/20 circling bouts led to climbs)59 (mean on-course altitude 48% of band)0.15 (227 circles, 54% left)
9Richard Martin74 (27 shared climbs)42 (19 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.0 (17 climbs ≥ 90 s)74 (20/27 circling bouts led to climbs)64 (mean on-course altitude 52% of band)0.15 (240 circles, 5% left)
10Dustan Hansen66 (29 shared climbs)32 (22 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (16 climbs ≥ 90 s)72 (18/25 circling bouts led to climbs)65 (mean on-course altitude 58% of band)0.12 (179 circles, 42% left)
11Mitch Butler65 (48 shared climbs)34 (21 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (14 climbs ≥ 90 s)65 (15/23 circling bouts led to climbs)44 (mean on-course altitude 52% of band)0.14 (320 circles, 38% left)
12Troy Horton74 (65 shared climbs)33 (31 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (21 climbs ≥ 90 s)74 (26/35 circling bouts led to climbs)64 (mean on-course altitude 54% of band)0.22 (186 circles, 64% left)
13John Harriott65 (55 shared climbs)28 (18 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (11 climbs ≥ 90 s)58 (15/26 circling bouts led to climbs)69 (mean on-course altitude 70% of band)0.16 (221 circles, 10% left)
14James Atkinson69 (63 shared climbs)30 (22 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (12 climbs ≥ 90 s)70 (21/30 circling bouts led to climbs)61 (mean on-course altitude 50% of band)0.18 (246 circles, 27% left)
15Stuart Cathcart69 (17 shared climbs)54 (33 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.6 (21 climbs ≥ 90 s)58 (14/24 circling bouts led to climbs)71 (mean on-course altitude 65% of band)0.22 (132 circles, 53% left)
16Enda Carrigan72 (65 shared climbs)34 (27 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.0 (19 climbs ≥ 90 s)70 (21/30 circling bouts led to climbs)47 (mean on-course altitude 44% of band)0.16 (395 circles, 78% left)
17Mark Jeffree69 (76 shared climbs)36 (25 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (13 climbs ≥ 90 s)70 (26/37 circling bouts led to climbs)41 (mean on-course altitude 34% of band)0.17 (290 circles, 43% left)
18Neale Halsall74 (35 shared climbs)55 (12 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (11 climbs ≥ 90 s)88 (14/16 circling bouts led to climbs)37 (mean on-course altitude 42% of band)0.16 (163 circles, 11% left)
19Andrew Taylor58 (20 shared climbs)60 (23 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.4 (20 climbs ≥ 90 s)74 (14/19 circling bouts led to climbs)86 (mean on-course altitude 61% of band)— (9 circles, 33% left)
20Trent Brown81 (11 shared climbs)27 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)56 (9/16 circling bouts led to climbs)37 (mean on-course altitude 36% of band)0.19 (114 circles, 100% left)
21Ward Gunn58 (56 shared climbs)35 (22 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (13 climbs ≥ 90 s)68 (15/22 circling bouts led to climbs)79 (mean on-course altitude 71% of band)0.15 (209 circles, 1% left)
22Todd Wisewould69 (50 shared climbs)35 (14 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)56 (9/16 circling bouts led to climbs)74 (mean on-course altitude 55% of band)0.17 (212 circles, 62% left)
23Olav Opsanger70 (23 shared climbs)32 (10 climbs ≥ 60 s)2.0 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)64 (7/11 circling bouts led to climbs)55 (mean on-course altitude 48% of band)0.17 (97 circles, 22% left)
24Michael Free65 (46 shared climbs)53 (14 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.8 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)100 (12/12 circling bouts led to climbs)49 (mean on-course altitude 49% of band)0.18 (158 circles, 8% left)
25Adrian Connor69 (55 shared climbs)54 (15 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (9 climbs ≥ 90 s)69 (9/13 circling bouts led to climbs)58 (mean on-course altitude 47% of band)0.14 (216 circles, 6% left)
26Neil Hooke62 (30 shared climbs)54 (14 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (10 climbs ≥ 90 s)81 (13/16 circling bouts led to climbs)59 (mean on-course altitude 41% of band)0.16 (139 circles, 27% left)
27Peter Adriaans73 (30 shared climbs)34 (13 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.1 (12 climbs ≥ 90 s)63 (12/19 circling bouts led to climbs)56 (mean on-course altitude 45% of band)0.13 (152 circles, 16% left)
28Hughbert Alexander64 (10 shared climbs)61 (13 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.3 (10 climbs ≥ 90 s)57 (8/14 circling bouts led to climbs)55 (mean on-course altitude 40% of band)0.22 (27 circles, 37% left)
29Tushar Pokle71 (31 shared climbs)24 (19 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.0 (12 climbs ≥ 90 s)68 (13/19 circling bouts led to climbs)103 (mean on-course altitude 78% of band)0.16 (154 circles, 58% left)
30Hossain Tefaili63 (37 shared climbs)48 (7 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (5 climbs ≥ 90 s)36 (4/11 circling bouts led to climbs)49 (mean on-course altitude 39% of band)0.17 (165 circles, 17% left)
31Gary Herman79 (6 shared climbs)68 (3 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)40 (2/5 circling bouts led to climbs)67 (mean on-course altitude 49% of band)0.18 (57 circles, 4% left)
32Rennick Kerr77 (17 shared climbs)39 (7 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.5 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)50 (2/4 circling bouts led to climbs)70 (mean on-course altitude 47% of band)0.14 (62 circles, 21% left)
33Peter Garrone59 (16 shared climbs)48 (10 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.8 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)57 (8/14 circling bouts led to climbs)31 (mean on-course altitude 34% of band)0.19 (103 circles, 6% left)
34Andrew Sutton57 (31 shared climbs)41 (10 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.2 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)50 (3/6 circling bouts led to climbs)35 (mean on-course altitude 36% of band)0.18 (98 circles, 44% left)
35Peter Burkitt68 (16 shared climbs)35 (5 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.8 (3 climbs ≥ 90 s)67 (4/6 circling bouts led to climbs)2 (mean on-course altitude 3% of band)0.14 (74 circles, 50% left)
36Peter Tolhurst56 (30 shared climbs)54 (7 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.6 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)83 (5/6 circling bouts led to climbs)27 (mean on-course altitude 23% of band)0.15 (53 circles, 26% left)
37Brett Davis70 (8 shared climbs)46 (3 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.4 (3 climbs ≥ 90 s)40 (2/5 circling bouts led to climbs)17 (mean on-course altitude 13% of band)0.15 (35 circles, 20% left)
38Mario Chapa54 (5 shared climbs)80 (9 climbs ≥ 60 s)0.3 (7 climbs ≥ 90 s)63 (5/8 circling bouts led to climbs)22 (mean on-course altitude 7% of band)— (9 circles, 100% left)
39Andrew Berenyi6 (2 shared climbs)————— (5 circles, 0% left)
40Randall Clotworthy27 (1 shared climb)16 (1 climb ≥ 60 s)———0.26 (23 circles, 26% left)
41Damian Hamilton76 (13 shared climbs)42 (8 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (6 climbs ≥ 90 s)——0.19 (105 circles, 0% left)
42Marty Hearne50 (18 shared climbs)55 (4 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.3 (2 climbs ≥ 90 s)33 (1/3 circling bouts led to climbs)-23 (mean on-course altitude -26% of band)0.17 (106 circles, 16% left)
43Neill Hollingsworth25 (1 shared climb)————— (6 circles, 17% left)
44Wayne Johnston60 (18 shared climbs)90 (2 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.9 (1 climb ≥ 90 s)——0.14 (13 circles, 0% left)
45Jason Lannstrom63 (27 shared climbs)50 (6 climbs ≥ 60 s)1.6 (4 climbs ≥ 90 s)—-15 (mean on-course altitude -17% of band)0.21 (73 circles, 42% left)
46James McGinty25 (4 shared climbs)————— (5 circles, 40% left)

Share of lift turned in that was kept as a climb

Measured in percent · no expected direction

How selective the pilot is about the lift they stop for. Each period of circling of 30 s or more after the start counts as lift that the pilot sampled. If the period overlaps a detected thermal, the pilot kept that lift. If it does not, they turned a few circles and left it. The value is the percentage kept. A low value means they are selective. A high value means they keep almost every climb they turn in. There is no expected direction: selection wins on a strong day and wastes time on a weak one.

Acceptance by hour

HourMedian accepted (%)pilots
10015
7938
7136
6820
339
01

Median per-pilot acceptance %, bucketed by the hour (competition time zone).

How round and consistent the circles were

Measured in ratio · lower is better

Whether the pilot flies clean, repeatable circles, or moves around the thermal. We fit each detected circle by least squares. The RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn was. The value is the median over all of the circles of the pilot. A lower value means smoother and more consistent turns.

Turn direction across the field: 35% left (6220 circles).

best: clear pattern (0.79)

#PilotGlideSpdGlideL/DSpeedToFlyWide%Dolphin%
1Rohan Taylor67.8 (19 glides, 62 min gliding)0.92 (5 legs compared)-0.5 (18 glide→climb pairs)20 (5 legs completed)15 (842 of 5729 m gained outside thermals)
2Steven Crosby65.3 (19 glides, 67 min gliding)1.06 (5 legs compared)5.3 (18 glide→climb pairs)24 (5 legs completed)10 (540 of 5673 m gained outside thermals)
3Steve Docherty61.0 (24 glides, 77 min gliding)1.05 (5 legs compared)-2.9 (23 glide→climb pairs)32 (5 legs completed)11 (649 of 5875 m gained outside thermals)
4Vic Hare64.9 (18 glides, 69 min gliding)0.99 (5 legs compared)4.7 (17 glide→climb pairs)27 (5 legs completed)9 (531 of 5911 m gained outside thermals)
5Rory Duncan60.7 (25 glides, 79 min gliding)1.24 (5 legs compared)-2.6 (24 glide→climb pairs)27 (5 legs completed)14 (686 of 5073 m gained outside thermals)
6Jay Kubeil55.0 (32 glides, 96 min gliding)1.40 (5 legs compared)1.8 (31 glide→climb pairs)27 (5 legs completed)24 (1244 of 5256 m gained outside thermals)
7Bruce Wynne63.6 (15 glides, 74 min gliding)1.02 (5 legs compared)-6.0 (14 glide→climb pairs)30 (5 legs completed)3 (200 of 7479 m gained outside thermals)
8Jon Durand58.4 (24 glides, 78 min gliding)1.04 (5 legs compared)7.2 (23 glide→climb pairs)30 (5 legs completed)10 (612 of 6105 m gained outside thermals)
9Richard Martin61.0 (23 glides, 84 min gliding)1.12 (5 legs compared)-2.4 (22 glide→climb pairs)34 (5 legs completed)11 (565 of 5344 m gained outside thermals)
10Dustan Hansen60.9 (25 glides, 87 min gliding)1.01 (5 legs compared)-0.7 (24 glide→climb pairs)37 (5 legs completed)16 (1038 of 6324 m gained outside thermals)
11Mitch Butler61.5 (22 glides, 81 min gliding)0.97 (5 legs compared)-2.2 (21 glide→climb pairs)28 (5 legs completed)12 (735 of 6120 m gained outside thermals)
12Troy Horton52.4 (30 glides, 96 min gliding)0.83 (5 legs compared)-4.3 (29 glide→climb pairs)30 (5 legs completed)14 (1084 of 7700 m gained outside thermals)
13John Harriott51.1 (30 glides, 119 min gliding)1.16 (5 legs compared)0.2 (29 glide→climb pairs)31 (5 legs completed)19 (1212 of 6552 m gained outside thermals)
14James Atkinson55.3 (32 glides, 112 min gliding)1.13 (5 legs compared)0.5 (31 glide→climb pairs)40 (5 legs completed)26 (1574 of 5952 m gained outside thermals)
15Stuart Cathcart53.0 (18 glides, 88 min gliding)1.04 (5 legs compared)3.1 (17 glide→climb pairs)39 (5 legs completed)6 (399 of 6965 m gained outside thermals)
16Enda Carrigan57.4 (36 glides, 122 min gliding)1.00 (3 legs compared)0.9 (35 glide→climb pairs)85 (3 legs completed)21 (1434 of 6875 m gained outside thermals)
17Mark Jeffree44.8 (49 glides, 172 min gliding)0.77 (3 legs compared)0.4 (48 glide→climb pairs)62 (3 legs completed)20 (1813 of 8930 m gained outside thermals)
18Neale Halsall62.2 (26 glides, 71 min gliding)0.93 (3 legs compared)0.9 (25 glide→climb pairs)39 (3 legs completed)17 (890 of 5189 m gained outside thermals)
19Andrew Taylor47.8 (14 glides, 79 min gliding)1.00 (3 legs compared)1.0 (13 glide→climb pairs)28 (3 legs completed)3 (159 of 5541 m gained outside thermals)
20Trent Brown58.6 (13 glides, 54 min gliding)1.16 (2 legs compared)7.5 (12 glide→climb pairs)28 (2 legs completed)18 (608 of 3447 m gained outside thermals)
21Ward Gunn56.3 (27 glides, 81 min gliding)1.09 (2 legs compared)0.5 (26 glide→climb pairs)46 (2 legs completed)19 (879 of 4583 m gained outside thermals)
22Todd Wisewould58.8 (12 glides, 70 min gliding)1.07 (2 legs compared)4.4 (11 glide→climb pairs)31 (2 legs completed)19 (597 of 3162 m gained outside thermals)
23Olav Opsanger60.4 (11 glides, 39 min gliding)0.80 (2 legs compared)-5.6 (10 glide→climb pairs)23 (2 legs completed)29 (1252 of 4352 m gained outside thermals)
24Michael Free49.4 (18 glides, 71 min gliding)1.12 (2 legs compared)5.8 (17 glide→climb pairs)33 (2 legs completed)21 (827 of 3959 m gained outside thermals)
25Adrian Connor49.3 (20 glides, 72 min gliding)0.78 (2 legs compared)0.0 (19 glide→climb pairs)86 (2 legs completed)23 (1490 of 6501 m gained outside thermals)
26Neil Hooke54.1 (11 glides, 43 min gliding)0.77 (2 legs compared)1.5 (10 glide→climb pairs)42 (2 legs completed)14 (454 of 3199 m gained outside thermals)
27Peter Adriaans53.6 (13 glides, 67 min gliding)0.85 (1 leg compared)-4.6 (12 glide→climb pairs)74 (1 leg completed)11 (470 of 4404 m gained outside thermals)
28Hughbert Alexander50.1 (5 glides, 42 min gliding)1.01 (1 leg compared)-3.8 (4 glide→climb pairs)33 (1 leg completed)4 (91 of 2564 m gained outside thermals)
29Tushar Pokle43.3 (19 glides, 77 min gliding)0.93 (1 leg compared)2.0 (18 glide→climb pairs)113 (1 leg completed)14 (572 of 4148 m gained outside thermals)
30Hossain Tefaili56.3 (8 glides, 40 min gliding)1.24 (1 leg compared)0.9 (7 glide→climb pairs)98 (1 leg completed)27 (425 of 1569 m gained outside thermals)
31Gary Herman44.3 (2 glides, 25 min gliding)0.92 (1 leg compared)—26 (1 leg completed)6 (37 of 590 m gained outside thermals)
32Rennick Kerr37.8 (2 glides, 26 min gliding)1.01 (1 leg compared)—34 (1 leg completed)30 (165 of 553 m gained outside thermals)
33Peter Garrone46.0 (10 glides, 39 min gliding)0.83 (1 leg compared)-1.6 (9 glide→climb pairs)163 (1 leg completed)3 (96 of 3097 m gained outside thermals)
34Andrew Sutton50.6 (8 glides, 22 min gliding)0.75 (1 leg compared)-2.2 (7 glide→climb pairs)109 (1 leg completed)15 (194 of 1281 m gained outside thermals)
35Peter Burkitt48.9 (8 glides, 24 min gliding)1.03 (1 leg compared)-0.2 (7 glide→climb pairs)84 (1 leg completed)34 (306 of 896 m gained outside thermals)
36Peter Tolhurst46.0 (8 glides, 17 min gliding)—7.4 (7 glide→climb pairs)—37 (244 of 653 m gained outside thermals)
37Brett Davis40.7 (2 glides, 13 min gliding)———27 (81 of 296 m gained outside thermals)
38Mario Chapa38.5 (4 glides, 18 min gliding)———3 (17 of 523 m gained outside thermals)
39Andrew Berenyi—————
40Randall Clotworthy—————
41Damian Hamilton—————
42Marty Hearne47.6 (2 glides, 8 min gliding)————
43Neill Hollingsworth————100 (423 of 423 m gained outside thermals)
44Wayne Johnston—————
45Jason Lannstrom46.8 (1 glides, 8 min gliding)————
46James McGinty—————

Glide speed between climbs

Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

How fast the pilot moves down the course when they are on a glide. The value is the duration-weighted mean ground speed over every glide after the start, which is the glide distance divided by the glide time. A higher value means more ground covered in each minute between climbs.

Field glide speed: median 53.9 km/h · p90 62.3 km/h (40 pilots)

best: clear pattern (0.79)

#PilotFloor%LowSaveskm/climbSearch%
1Rohan Taylor44 (12 descents, lowest -31% of band)0.01.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 61%)27
2Steven Crosby59 (11 descents, lowest 12% of band)0.02.4 (mean shared-climb pctile 56%)26
3Steve Docherty37 (17 descents, lowest 17% of band)0.01.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 48%)26
4Vic Hare55 (11 descents, lowest 4% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 12% of band)2.3 (mean shared-climb pctile 53%)23
5Rory Duncan42 (13 descents, lowest -12% of band)0.01.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 51%)26
6Jay Kubeil50 (16 descents, lowest -36% of band)0.01.3 (mean shared-climb pctile 53%)25
7Bruce Wynne40 (11 descents, lowest -13% of band)2.0 (deepest save from 6% of band)3.7 (mean shared-climb pctile 53%)12
8Jon Durand30 (12 descents, lowest -21% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -5% of band)1.7 (mean shared-climb pctile 54%)23
9Richard Martin43 (11 descents, lowest -4% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -1% of band)2.1 (mean shared-climb pctile 49%)35
10Dustan Hansen38 (11 descents, lowest -12% of band)0.01.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 50%)27
11Mitch Butler31 (12 descents, lowest -16% of band)2.0 (deepest save from -10% of band)1.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 46%)32
12Troy Horton44 (12 descents, lowest -24% of band)2.0 (deepest save from -10% of band)1.3 (mean shared-climb pctile 58%)32
13John Harriott53 (12 descents, lowest 16% of band)0.01.3 (mean shared-climb pctile 44%)36
14James Atkinson40 (12 descents, lowest -10% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -2% of band)1.1 (mean shared-climb pctile 55%)38
15Stuart Cathcart62 (12 descents, lowest -11% of band)0.02.1 (mean shared-climb pctile 46%)23
16Enda Carrigan13 (13 descents, lowest -18% of band)2.0 (deepest save from 1% of band)1.0 (mean shared-climb pctile 47%)41
17Mark Jeffree16 (15 descents, lowest -29% of band)2.0 (deepest save from 9% of band)0.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 50%)51
18Neale Halsall33 (10 descents, lowest -1% of band)0.01.3 (mean shared-climb pctile 55%)38
19Andrew Taylor50 (9 descents, lowest -19% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -9% of band)3.1 (mean shared-climb pctile 46%)16
20Trent Brown22 (9 descents, lowest -20% of band)0.01.7 (mean shared-climb pctile 67%)38
21Ward Gunn60 (11 descents, lowest 23% of band)0.00.9 (mean shared-climb pctile 41%)34
22Todd Wisewould58 (6 descents, lowest -27% of band)0.01.6 (mean shared-climb pctile 47%)46
23Olav Opsanger43 (17 descents, lowest -34% of band)0.01.7 (mean shared-climb pctile 60%)32
24Michael Free22 (7 descents, lowest 5% of band)0.01.3 (mean shared-climb pctile 51%)24
25Adrian Connor14 (9 descents, lowest -7% of band)1.0 (deepest save from 7% of band)0.8 (mean shared-climb pctile 55%)32
26Neil Hooke19 (5 descents, lowest -17% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -12% of band)1.5 (mean shared-climb pctile 41%)31
27Peter Adriaans36 (8 descents, lowest -27% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -26% of band)1.1 (mean shared-climb pctile 50%)36
28Hughbert Alexander14 (2 descents, lowest -12% of band)1.0 (deepest save from -3% of band)3.0 (mean shared-climb pctile 55%)25
29Tushar Pokle85 (9 descents, lowest 19% of band)0.00.7 (mean shared-climb pctile 49%)42
30Hossain Tefaili45 (3 descents, lowest 3% of band)0.0—57
31Gary Herman—0.0—43
32Rennick Kerr—0.0—38
33Peter Garrone31 (5 descents, lowest -17% of band)2.0 (deepest save from -27% of band)—33
34Andrew Sutton—0.0—40
35Peter Burkitt-17 (2 descents, lowest -21% of band)0.0—55
36Peter Tolhurst10 (2 descents, lowest -2% of band)0.0—52
37Brett Davis—0.0—62
38Mario Chapa2 (2 descents, lowest 0% of band)0.0—45
39Andrew Berenyi—0.0—100
40Randall Clotworthy—0.0—100
41Damian Hamilton—0.0—100
42Marty Hearne—0.0—92
43Neill Hollingsworth—0.0—100
44Wayne Johnston—0.0—100
45Jason Lannstrom—0.0—66
46James McGinty—0.0—100

Share of race time spent hunting for the next climb

Measured in percent · lower is better

Time that goes into neither a climb nor progress down the course. This is the time spent to find lift, to stay up, and to decide what to do next. The value is the share of the speed-section time, from the start to ESS or to the landing, in which the pilot neither climbed in a thermal nor glided with real net speed. A lower value means less time lost between climbs.

Speed-section phase shares, field p25/median/p75: climb 19/32/39% · glide 24/30/34% · search 27/37/52%

best: some pattern (0.32)

best: clear pattern (0.53)

Footnotes

3 pilots in the standings but not in this analysis

  • Bruce Atkinson — scored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse
  • Cedric Joyce — scored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse
  • Neil Hooke — scored from a manual flight report — no tracklog to analyse

The correlations are measured against the published ranks, and those ranks include these pilots. Their behaviour cannot be measured without a tracklog.

How the field is compared

Everything that compares pilots to each other uses one shared clock. That includes gaggles, shared thermals, and the position of each pilot at the same moment. GlideComp resamples every track onto a common 10-second grid. Two pilots are therefore always compared at the same instant, whatever rate their instruments logged at.

Metric glossary

How GlideComp measures every metric on this page. On screen, the ⓘ beside a metric opens the same description in place. On paper, this section is the reference for all of them.

Day profile & wind

The day’s wind, hour by hour and leg by leg(“Wind” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · no expected direction

What the air did, read from the field itself. We estimate the wind from the circling of every pilot. The first method is the drift of the circle centre, and the second method, used when the first is not available, is the modulation of the ground speed. We then average the vectors two ways. The table by hour of day shows how the wind increased and changed direction through the day. The table by speed-section leg shows the wind on each part of the course. This metric describes the day, so it has no value for each pilot.

How strong the day’s climbs were, hour by hour(“Climb/hr” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

When the day started, reached its peak, and ended. We group the thermal climbs of all pilots by the hour in which each climb started, labelled in the time zone of the competition. The median and the 90th-percentile average climb rate for each hour show how the lift developed. This metric describes the day, so it has no value for each pilot.

Share of the flight spent in air that wasn’t sinking(“NonSink%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

How much of the flight was in air worth being in. The value is the share of the airborne time of a pilot, on the shared grid, with a 30 s-smoothed vario at or above −0.5 m/s. The time they flew, the line they steered and the way the flight ended all feed this value. It is therefore a reading of the day as much as of the pilot. There is no expected direction, and the sign of the correlation is the finding. The timing table compares the window of the day’s best climbs against the time when the field launched.

Climbing

Climbing faster than the pilots sharing the thermal(“Out-climb” in tables)
Measured in percent · higher is better

When this pilot and other pilots were in the SAME thermal, who climbed faster? In every thermal that two pilots or more used, we rank each use by its average climb rate. The percentile of a use is the share of uses that were strictly slower. The value is the duration-weighted mean percentile over the shared climbs of the pilot. 50% is exactly average. 80% means they climbed faster than four in five of the pilots they shared lift with. The shared thermal is what separates centring skill from thermal selection: a pilot who only found better air gets no higher value here.

Time to core thermals(“Core s” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

How long the pilot takes to get into the best lift after they arrive in a thermal. For each thermal of 60 s or more, we measure the seconds from the entry until the 30 s rolling climb rate first reaches 90% of its peak in that thermal. The value is the median across the thermals of the pilot. Every second here is a second spent climbing slower than the thermal can carry them.

Climb rate at thermal exit(“LeaveRate” in tables)
Measured in metres per second · no expected direction

The median climb rate that the pilot left thermals at. For each thermal of 90 s or more, we take the climb rate over its final 30 s. A high value means they leave lift that still works. A low value means they stay in a climb until nothing is left. This is an absolute rate, so read it against the day: compare it with the median climb in "How strong the day’s climbs were". A pilot who leaves at 1.5 m/s leaves a good climb on a 1 m/s day, and takes the worst lift available on a 4 m/s day. There is no expected direction. The sign of the correlation says which behaviour paid on this task.

Share of lift turned in that was kept as a climb(“Kept%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

How selective the pilot is about the lift they stop for. Each period of circling of 30 s or more after the start counts as lift that the pilot sampled. If the period overlaps a detected thermal, the pilot kept that lift. If it does not, they turned a few circles and left it. The value is the percentage kept. A low value means they are selective. A high value means they keep almost every climb they turn in. There is no expected direction: selection wins on a strong day and wastes time on a weak one.

How much of the thermal the pilot climbed before leaving it(“TopOut%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Does the pilot climb to the top of every thermal, or leave with lift still above them? We take the altitude where they left each thermal after the start, as a percentage of the day’s working band. 0% is the floor of the field and 100% is its ceiling. The value is the median. There is no expected direction: a climb to the top buys height in reserve, and an early departure buys time.

How round and consistent the circles were(“Round” in tables)
Measured in ratio · lower is better

Whether the pilot flies clean, repeatable circles, or moves around the thermal. We fit each detected circle by least squares. The RMS fit error divided by the fitted radius measures how round the turn was. The value is the median over all of the circles of the pilot. A lower value means smoother and more consistent turns.

Gliding

Glide speed between climbs(“GlideSpd” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

How fast the pilot moves down the course when they are on a glide. The value is the duration-weighted mean ground speed over every glide after the start, which is the glide distance divided by the glide time. A higher value means more ground covered in each minute between climbs.

Glide L/D against the field median(“GlideL/D” in tables)
Measured in ratio · higher is better

Whether the pilot found better air on glide than the other pilots on the same leg. For each completed speed-section leg, we take the pilot's glide-phase L/D. That is the path distance divided by the net altitude lost during the glides, and we skip a leg that loses less than 100 m. We divide it by the median L/D of the field on that same leg, and then average over the legs. 1.10 means the pilot glided 10% further for each metre lost than the usual pilot on those legs.

Gliding faster when the next climb is stronger(“SpeedToFly” in tables)
Measured in kilometres per hour · higher is better

Speed to fly: the pilot flies faster when a good climb is in front of them, and slower when it is not. We pair each glide after the start with the climb rate of the next thermal that starts within 5 minutes. The value is the mean glide speed before climbs stronger than the median, minus the mean glide speed before weaker climbs. +8 km/h means the pilot flew 8 km/h faster into the good climbs. This is a PROXY, and not true speed to fly, because there is no glider polar data.

Gliding wide of the optimal course line(“Wide%” in tables)
Measured in percent · lower is better

How much further the pilot flew on glide than the optimised course line needed. 0% is a flight exactly along the line, and 12% is a glide 12% further than necessary. On each completed speed-section leg, we compare the pilot's route with the optimised distance of the leg, weighted by that optimised distance. Only the glides are measured at their full path length. Circling and searching contribute their entry-to-exit displacement instead. A climb or a search for lift therefore never reads as a wide line, because a pilot chooses a line only on glide. 0% is a real value that a pilot can reach: a pilot who flies the line of the optimiser scores exactly zero.

Share of the height gain made outside thermals(“Dolphin%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Dolphin flying: how much of the height that the pilot gained came outside of circling. The value is the share of the altitude gain after the start, smoothed over 10 s, that the pilot made outside a detected thermal. There is no expected direction. The sign of the correlation shows whether dolphin flying paid on this day.

Decision-making

How low the pilot gets between climbs(“Floor%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

How low the pilot goes before the next climb. A high value is a race with height in reserve, and a low value is a flight that goes down near the ground. We take each pair of climbs that the pilot made after the start, and we find the lowest point between them. We keep only the gaps that go down 100 m or more, because a top-up between two climbs is not a descent. We do not count a sled run or the glide to goal, because the pilot made no climb after them. The value is the median of those low points, as a percentage of the day's working band. 0% is where the lowest tenth of the field's climbs started, and 100% is where the highest tenth stopped. Thus a negative value shows that the pilot went lower than almost all of the field. The pilot must have two or more of these descents. There is no expected direction. The sign of the correlation says whether height in reserve pays.

Low saves dug out from the bottom of the band(“LowSaves” in tables)
Measured in count · no expected direction

How many times the pilot got low and climbed out again. We count the climbs after the start that the pilot entered below 15% of the working band, and that then gained 300 m or more. Those are true low saves. Zero is a real value, and not a missing one: it means the pilot never got that low. There is no expected direction. The sign of the correlation says whether a climb-out or a flight that stays high pays.

Distance covered between climbs(“km/climb” in tables)
Measured in kilometres · higher is better

How far the pilot gets down the course before they must stop and circle again. This is the direct reading of how often they stop. The value is the scored flown distance divided by the number of thermals taken after the start, so 3 km means three kilometres of course for each climb. The pilot must fly 20 km or more. The note of each pilot adds their mean climb percentile inside shared thermals, so you can read the number of stops together with the climb strength. Long legs between weak climbs is a different day from long legs between strong ones.

Share of race time spent hunting for the next climb(“Search%” in tables)
Measured in percent · lower is better

Time that goes into neither a climb nor progress down the course. This is the time spent to find lift, to stay up, and to decide what to do next. The value is the share of the speed-section time, from the start to ESS or to the landing, in which the pilot neither climbed in a thermal nor glided with real net speed. A lower value means less time lost between climbs.

Gaggle

Time spent flying with a gaggle(“InGaggle%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

Whether the pilot raced with other pilots or alone. The value is the share of their flying time after the start inside a detected gaggle, that is, clustered with one other racing pilot or more on the shared time grid. There is no expected direction. A gaggle increases the power to search for lift, but it also holds a pilot to its own speed. The sign of the correlation says which of the two occurred here.

Climbs joined on another pilot's marker(“Marked%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

How much of the lift of the pilot another pilot found first. The value is the share of their climbs after the start where another pilot was already established in the same thermal when they arrived. Established means 30 s or more into the climb, and still climbing. A high value means they mostly climb on the markers of other pilots. A low value means they find their own air. There is no expected direction. A marker is free information, but it puts a pilot where the last climb was, and not where the next one is.

How often leaving the gaggle paid off(“LeaveWin%” in tables)
Measured in percent · no expected direction

When a pilot leaves a gaggle that continues to fly, did the departure pay off? We compare the arrival of the pilot who left at the next turnpoint against the median arrival of the pilots who stayed. A win rate of more than 50% means their departures beat the gaggle. A pilot counts as a pilot who stayed only if they were still in the gaggle after the split, and reached that turnpoint after it.

Race craft

How long after the gate opened the pilot started(“StartDly” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

Every second between the opening of the gate and the crossing of the start line is a second lost for nothing. The value is the seconds from the start gate taken to the scored SSS crossing. On an elapsed-time task, the pilot’s own crossing is the reference, so the delay is 0 by definition. The start table adds the crossing altitude, and the distance behind the leading pilot who had already started.

Race time lost against the fastest pilots, leg by leg(“TimeLost” in tables)
Measured in seconds · lower is better

For each completed speed-section leg, we compare the leg time of the pilot with the mean of the top 10 pilots by rank who completed that leg. Only the losses count, and we add them together. The sum of the leg times is the race time, and the rank defines the reference, so this metric follows the result by construction. Read the waterfall table, which shows every leg against the task winner, for the diagnosis. Do not read the correlation as a finding.

Race time behind the leader at ESS(“Behind” in tables)
Measured in minutes · lower is better

At each speed-section turnpoint, we compare the elapsed race time of the pilot, which is the reaching time minus their own start, with the fastest pilot to that turnpoint. The value is the minutes behind at ESS. It follows the final rank almost exactly, because this metric is the sanity check of the evaluation.

Arriving at ESS with height to spare(“Spare m” in tables)
Measured in metres · lower is better

Height still available at ESS that the pilot no longer needed. That altitude was available for more speed, and the pilot did not use it. The value is the altitude at ESS minus the altitude needed to glide to goal at the standard glide ratio of the sport, which is 5.0 for HG and 4.0 for PG (S7F §12.3.6). A large positive margin means the pilot arrived too high. A margin near zero means they flew the final glide with little height to spare.

Final glide committed to when leaving the last climb(“FinalGl” in tables)
Measured in ratio · no expected direction

How optimistic the pilot was about their final glide. A pilot wins or loses a task by the height at which they leave the last climb. At the last climb of the pilot before ESS, or before the landing, we divide the distance to goal by their height above goal. That is the glide ratio they committed to. 8 means they left and needed 8:1 to make goal. The value counts only when that climb ended within 1.5 times the distance of the final leg from goal. There is no expected direction: a marginal glide wins if it connects, and loses if it does not.